Israel

Turkey

Economics

Politics

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Israel plans to abolish its free trade agreement with Turkey and impose a 100% tariff on Turkish imports in retaliation for Turkey's decision to halt exports to Israel, Reuters reported on May 16.

Turkey, Israel: Israeli Finance Minister Plans To Abolish Free Trade With Turkey

Turkey's Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek announced a package of savings measures to cut back on public spending, Hurriyet reported on May 13.

Turkey: Government's Spending Spree To Slow After Municipal Elections

Ethiopia

Somalia

Military & Security

The foreign affairs minister of Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, Esse Kayd, stressed that Somalia's maritime security agreement with Turkey did not grant Turkish ships the right to enter the territory's waters, Garowe Online reported on May 6.

Somalia: Somaliland Warns Turkey Against Entering Territorial Waters 

Palestinian Territories

Turkey halted all trade with Israel amid the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, conditioning a resumption of trade on a permanent cease-fire with the Palestinian militant group Hamas and uninterrupted humanitarian aid to Gaza, Bloomberg reported on May 2.

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Halts Trade to Israel Over Gaza War

Eritrea

Cuba

Nicaragua

Venezuela

Egypt

Iran

Saudi Arabia

China

Norway

Belarus

Russia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Reporters Without Borders published its 2024 World Press Freedom Index, indicating that suppression of journalists and political attacks on the press have "significantly intensified" in the last year, The Guardian reported on May 3.

Global: Press Freedom Declines Amid Pivotal Elections Around the World

Iraq

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iraq for the first time in 13 years culminated in the signing of 26 agreements, including a multilateral memorandum of understanding between the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey and Iraq for the Development Road project, Anadolu Agency reported on April 23.

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

United States

Qatar

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Qatar is reassessing its role as a mediator in the Israel-Hamas war amid stalled attempts to broker a cease-fire and U.S. and Israeli criticism of Qatar's handling of negotiations, BBC reported on April 17. 

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

France

The Turkish Ministry of Trade announced that it would halt exports to Israel in 54 categories, including iron and steel products, jet fuel, construction equipment, bricks, chemicals, and pesticides until Israel agreed to a cease-fire in Gaza and allowed more humanitarian aid into Gaza, Al Jazeera reported on April 9.

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel Over Gaza War

Snapshots

Opposition supporters celebrate Ekrem Imamoglu's reelection as Istanbul's mayor at the Republican People's Party Istanbul Provincial Directorate on April 1, 2024, in Istanbul, Turkey.

Turkey's government scrambles to recover from a weak performance in the country's municipal elections.

A Strong Performance From the Opposition in Turkey's Municipal Elections Bodes Ill for Erdogan

Assessments

South Africa

Indonesia

Europe

An APK rally March 29, 2024, in Istanbul. Nationwide municipal elections occur March 31, in which the ruling AKP will likely try to regain the mayoralties of large cities including Ankara and Istanbul.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkish Municipal Elections, Blinken Goes to Europe

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (center) poses with Istanbul mayoral candidate Murat Kurum (left) and Ankara mayoral candidate Turgut Altinok (right) during the presentation of the Justice and Development Party's election manifesto in Ankara, Turkey, on Jan. 30, 2024.

If the AKP retakes the mayorships in Istanbul and Ankara, it could further embolden the ruling party to pursue a constitutional referendum vote that would allow President Erdogan to run again in 2028.

What's at Stake in Turkey's Municipal Elections

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Argentina

Mexico

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Lebanon

Syria

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant attend a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv on Oct. 28, 2023, amid ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. 

Israeli assassinations of Hamas officials abroad would likely provoke more antisemitism and rebukes from Western governments, and maintain the risk of regional escalation with Iranian proxies and potentially Iran itself.

The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders

Funeral prayers in absentia are held for those who lost their lives in the deadly blast at a Gaza hospital on October 18, 2023, in Ankara, Turkey. 

Domestic pressure to take a more definitively pro-Palestinian stance following the Gaza hospital blast will impede Anakra's ability to mediate between Hamas and Israel.

Rising Anti-Israel Anger Tests Turkey's Ability to Serve as a Mediator in Gaza

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Bahrain

Jordan

Kuwait

Morocco

Oman

Tunisia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Slovakia

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Sub-Saharan Africa

North Macedonia

Georgia

An old map labels African countries and regions by their colonial names.

Shifting national identities have always led nations to adopt new names, and in this evolving multipolar world, modern states are no different.

National Identity and the Geopolitics of Choosing a Name

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

A ship transiting Ukrainian grain is seen off the coast of Istanbul, Turkey, on July 17, 2023, after Russia announced its withdrawal from the Black Sea grain export deal.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

If high food prices continue to harm its political popularity at home, Ankara may become more confrontational with Moscow over its blockade of Ukrainian wheat exports. 

What Russia's Refusal to Restore the Ukraine Grain Deal Means for Its Ties With Turkey 

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey, Israel: Israeli Finance Minister Plans To Abolish Free Trade With Turkey

Turkey: Government's Spending Spree To Slow After Municipal Elections

Somalia: Somaliland Warns Turkey Against Entering Territorial Waters

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Halts Trade to Israel Over Gaza War

Global: Press Freedom Declines Amid Pivotal Elections Around the World

Turkey, Iraq: Erdogan's Iraq Visit Yields Development and Security Agreements

Qatar: Doha Reassesses Mediator Role in Israel-Hamas War

Turkey, Israel: Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel Over Gaza War

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